June 20, 2040
Op-Ed: Food System Achieves Massive Shifts, But Not All Benefit

We’ve come so much farther than anyone imagined two decades ago. What was once a highly industrialized global system, the food and agriculture sector is becoming more localized, dynamic, and responsive to nature and communities, largely driven by four major shifts:

1. From centralized to decentralized

Experts point to the breakup of multinational companies in 2030 as the tipping point for change. Starting with the major technology and media corporations, a wave of anti-trust legislation soon hit the food and agriculture industries. From seed and crop protection companies to aggregators, ingredients suppliers, retailers, and brands, multinational corporations were forced to drastically downsize by selling off their businesses in entire markets or spinning out new independent entities. The shakeup enabled smaller regional companies to gain a foothold in the market, while governments of American states and small countries gained the ability to better advocate for their communities and natural resources. The dilution of corporate power also spurred rapid growth in cooperative ownership models across food production—especially in previously vertically integrated businesses such as poultry production—and food retail. 

What was the impetus for this massive shift in corporate power? Some say it was the grassroots activism that propelled progressive representatives and programs into the mainstream, while others point to the scandals that emerged around 2026, exposing anticompetitive and speculative investing behavior that lined the pockets of executives as their workers and communities were decimated by climate change-driven catastrophes. Regardless of the cause, it’s clear from farmer unrest in the Upper Midwest last week and recent bankruptcy of the California Almond Board that the changes are still rippling through supply chains. The full impact remains unclear. 

2. From efficient to resilient

Highly efficient, just-in-time supply chains powered the global corporate food system. We saw how vulnerable these supply chains were during the COVID-19 pandemic, yet it took the dissolution of global corporate power to spur public investment in regional food distribution and processing infrastructure. 

Now there is a focus on building infrastructure to connect farms to markets, including reopening small- and medium-size slaughterhouses and processing facilities that were shuttered during the period of concentration and specialization. Food sovereignty advocates are leveraging the influx of public dollars to engage local farmers and ranchers and community members around investment decisions. Efforts to secure commitments from anchor institutions such as schools and hospitals to procure food from regional sources have proven successful in the Northeast and Pacific Northwest, adding a much-needed bump in funding. With these changes, single events such as a pandemic or closure of a meatpacking plant will no longer constrain national food supply. Redundancy is no longer the enemy of effective capital deployment—it’s the goal. 

3. From extractive to regenerative

Alongside the shift towards regional decision-making and grower-centered policies, breakthroughs in soil science and analysis in the late 2020s enabled the development of high-quality, ground-truthed soil inventories across the United States. A handful of extension agents and land grant university researchers, no longer beholden to funding from corporations, harnessed these new technologies and databases to spark a sea change in technical assistance and training programs. Growers are now able to access more nuanced and contextually-relevant guidance, as well as gain financial support for agroecological practices through the new federal Soil Quality Crop Insurance Credit program and regional Ecosystem Improvement Zone payouts. Growers are now paid for soil improvements in individual fields and, through participation in regional projects, for their relative share of improvements in local water quality, air pollution, and biodiversity. 

4. From reductionist to holistic

The singular focus on high yields, once the holy grail of agricultural mindsets and policies, has given way to a more holistic paradigm. Growers are supported and incentivized to grow healthy crops, build soil, and work with others across their regions to improve landscapes. Many farmers and ranchers across the United States have reduced their reliance on chemical inputs, lowering costs, while diversifying income streams by growing a wider diversity of crops and receiving payments for soil improvements and ecosystem services.  

What’s next

Not all are able to share in these gains. BIPOC farmers are currently suing the USDA and several states for ongoing discriminatory practices and treaty violations that prevent them from benefiting from these new programs and local investments. Young farmers are still leaving the profession at alarming rates, or not able to enter it at all, due to the burden of student loan debt that has continued to rise during the yearslong stalemate in Congress over universal free college education and vocational school access. Community organizers point to the lack of diversity in academia, the financial sector, and government as a key barrier to ensuring equitable distribution of benefits to all growers.  

Some experts and researchers aren’t convinced the changes will last. While corporations are no longer as powerful as they once were, many former executives and powerful industry families made billions through the selling off of business assets and favorable negotiations during the corporate breakup years. It could be just a matter of time until they amass enough support in the government to pass pro-business policies or win favor in the public by stepping in when the next crisis hits. In the past two years, the amount of philanthropic funding wealthy families funneled into community projects across the country tripled, which could very likely be more about rebuilding the public’s trust ahead of power grabs than benevolence. 

A network of advocacy organizations and think tanks is working to make it hard for Congress and state legislatures to reverse the changes and impede momentum. They’re focused on integrating the human right to food and the environment in state constitutions, laying the groundwork to support local agroecosystems through state policy. They also have a program to recast the Farm Bill as the National Life, Liberty, and Pursuit of Happiness Bill that brings together the right of farmers to earn a decent living and the right of all Americans to enjoy nutritious food and healthy environments for generations to come.

This month, I completed Climate Farm School, a four-week deep dive into the climate impact of food systems that includes a week of working alongside farmers. I spent my time at Green Valley Farm + Mill in Sonoma, learning about soil health, farm financing, and exploratory ownership models that enable small-scale diversified farming.

The final assignment was to write a vision for the food system in 2040. I opted to write a scenario, a plausible, internally consistent story about the future. I used a “history of the future” approach that imagines we are in 2040 and looking back on what happened to create that future world. I learned this technique while working as a researcher with the Institute for the Future. Aspects of this scenario depict what I’d like to see in 2040. I also include aspects that are not preferable, such as racism, power imbalances, exploitation, and other challenges that are a reality within our current food system, as a provocation to highlight the kinds of mindset and structural changes needed to create a truly equitable future.